The main change is a weather-model rotation: San Francisco now offers the strongest new entry, while Chicago 84–85°F has become overpriced relative to the latest airport-specific forecast.
Prices below use the executable bid/ask where available—not merely Polymarket’s displayed midpoint.
Recommended actions
| Contract | Executable price | Fair probability | Action | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco July 20: 72–73°F YES | Ask 0.30 | 44% | Buy ≤0.30; absolute max 0.31 | 20 USDT |
| Chicago July 20: 84–85°F YES | Bid ≈0.30 | 24% | Sell entire position | 45 USDT cost basis |
| Chicago July 20: 86–87°F YES | Ask 0.30 | 44% | Add ≤0.30 | 15 USDT |
| Dallas July 19: 98–99°F YES | Bid ≈0.55 | 55–58% | Sell one-third of remaining position | 25 USDT cost basis |
| NYC July 20: 82–83°F YES | Ask 0.36 | 43% | Hold existing position | 25 USDT |
| WTI touches $90 in July — YES | ≈0.53 | 57% | Hold | 75 USDT |
| New US–Iran talks by August 31 — NO | Ask ≈0.58 | 62% | Hold | 80 USDT |
| Fed raises 25 bps in July — YES | Ask 0.049 | 7–8% | Hold; do not add | 40 USDT |
Best new opportunity: San Francisco 72–73°F
The Polymarket contract resolves using the daily maximum at San Francisco International Airport, KSFO. The 72–73°F outcome has an executable YES ask of approximately 0.30, while the latest NWS point forecast for the airport area calls for a Monday high of 72°F.
Using a conservative one-day temperature-error distribution, I estimate:
- fair probability: approximately 44%;
- purchase: 20 USDT at 0.30;
- contracts: approximately 66.67;
- profit if successful: approximately 46.67 USDT;
- model EV: approximately +9.33 USDT;
- expected return on stake: approximately +46.7%.
Do not chase above 0.31. At 0.35, most of the usable margin would disappear.
Chicago: rotate from 84–85°F into 86–87°F
Polymarket prices 84–85°F at 31–32¢ and 86–87°F at approximately 30¢. The updated NWS point forecast specifically for Chicago O’Hare now calls for a Monday high of 87°F.
My revised distribution:
| Chicago outcome | Market | Fair estimate |
|---|---|---|
| 84–85°F | 31% | 22–26% |
| 86–87°F | 30% | 42–46% |
| 88–89°F | 17% | 18–22% |
Recommended execution:
- sell all 84–85°F shares at 0.30 or better;
- expected proceeds: approximately 47.5 USDT;
- estimated realized profit: approximately +2.5 USDT;
- add 15 USDT to 86–87°F at no more than 0.30.
After adding, the 86–87°F position should total approximately 30 USDT and 100 contracts. At a 44% fair probability, its expected settlement value is 44 USDT, giving approximately +14 USDT model EV across the full position.
Dallas July 19: take additional profit
Dallas Love Field was already at 90°F at 10:53 a.m. CDT, while the NWS forecast remains 99°F. Polymarket prices the 98–99°F range at about 56%, almost identical to my revised 55–58% estimate.
The original position was acquired near 0.40, so there is no reason to retain the entire remaining exposure when the edge has largely closed.
Recommended:
- sell another 62.5 contracts—one-third of the remaining position;
- minimum acceptable price: 0.55;
- proceeds: approximately 34.38 USDT;
- realized profit on that portion: approximately +9.38 USDT;
- retain approximately 125 contracts, corresponding to 50 USDT original cost.
Other positions
NYC 82–83°F: the NWS forecast for LaGuardia is 83°F, versus a 36¢ executable ask. Fair probability remains around 43%, but the outcome has only about $431 in volume and the existing 25 USDT position is already sufficient. Hold without adding.
NYC low 64–65°F: the NWS forecast is 65°F, but the apparently attractive displayed probability of about 34% is misleading—the executable ask is approximately 44¢ because of the very wide spread. Do not buy at market. A passive order at 0.38 or below could be considered, but it is not included in the portfolio.
WTI $90: Polymarket remains near 53%. WTI closed Friday at $82.49 after a roughly 16% weekly rise, while renewed hostilities have slowed tanker traffic and increased disruption risks. My fair probability is approximately 57%, sufficient to retain the position but not to increase it.
US–Iran talks NO: August 31 YES is available around 44¢ and NO around 58¢. The qualifying criteria permit indirect, mediator-led, in-person diplomacy, which limits how high the NO estimate can reasonably go. Given the renewed fighting, I estimate NO at approximately 62%; hold 80 USDT without adding.
Fed +25 bps: Polymarket remains at 4.9%. Inflation is elevated and Governor Waller has delivered a hawkish assessment, but the previous decision was to hold and no reliable confirmation supports a large probability gap. I reduce fair value to 7–8%. Hold the existing tail position only.
Updated model portfolio
Assuming all proposed transactions execute at the stated limits:
| Open position | Cost basis |
|---|---|
| Dallas July 19, 98–99°F YES | 50 USDT |
| Chicago July 20, 86–87°F YES | 30 USDT |
| NYC July 20, 82–83°F YES | 25 USDT |
| San Francisco July 20, 72–73°F YES | 20 USDT |
| WTI touches $90 in July YES | 75 USDT |
| No new US–Iran talks by August 31 | 80 USDT |
| Fed raises 25 bps in July YES | 40 USDT |
| Total open cost | 320 USDT |
| Portfolio metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Starting capital | 1,000 USDT |
| Free reserve | approximately 670–673 USDT |
| Cumulative realized P/L | approximately −7 to −10 USDT |
| Current liquidation value | approximately 1,007–1,012 USDT |
| Maximum nominal open-position loss | 320 USDT |
| Raw model expected terminal value | approximately 1,075–1,085 USDT |
| Expected return from starting capital | approximately +7.5% to +8.5% |
| Conservative value after 50% edge haircut | approximately 1,035–1,045 USDT |
Principal risks
The largest risks are one-degree station-level forecast errors, Wunderground data revisions, the wide spreads in weather contracts, and correlated losses in WTI and Iran NO if diplomacy resumes unexpectedly. The Fed position will probably lose its entire 40 USDT stake even though its payoff-weighted EV remains modestly positive.
Net recommendation: buy San Francisco 72–73°F, rotate Chicago into 86–87°F, and take more profit from Dallas. Do not add to the macro positions.
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