The latest scan produces three actionable weather entries. The strongest are Chicago and Seattle. San Francisco’s forecast has shifted one degree lower, so the preferred exposure is now split across the two adjacent ranges.
This remains a model portfolio; no live orders have been placed.
Actions now
| Contract | Executable YES price | Fair estimate | Action | Size | Model EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago, July 20: 86–87°F | 0.30 | 47% | Add at ≤0.30 | 10 USDT | +5.7 |
| Seattle, July 20: 82–83°F | 0.30 | 45% | Open at ≤0.30 | 15 USDT | +7.5 |
| San Francisco, July 20: 70–71°F | 0.37 | 46% | Open at ≤0.37 | 15 USDT | +3.6 |
| San Francisco: 72–73°F | 0.29 | 29% | Hold existing 20; do not add | — | approximately neutral |
| Dallas, July 19: 98–99°F | 0.49 | 56% | Hold existing 50 | — | positive |
| NYC, July 20: 82–83°F | 0.34 | 44% | Hold existing 25 | — | positive |
| WTI touches $90 in July | 0.54 | 58% | Hold 75 | — | modest |
| No US–Iran talks by August 31 | 0.57 | 63% | Hold 80 | — | moderate |
| Fed raises 25 bps in July | 0.049 | 9–11% | Hold 40; do not add | — | high but fragile |
The three new orders deploy 40 USDT with approximately +16.8 USDT raw combined EV, or roughly 42% expected return on the added capital before model-error and execution adjustments.
Best opportunity: Chicago 86–87°F
The executable price remains 30¢. The airport-specific forecast now peaks at 86°F, directly inside the contract range. The contract resolves using the whole-degree maximum at Chicago O’Hare, KORD.
Add 10 USDT:
- approximately 33.3 additional shares;
- total Chicago position becomes 40 USDT and roughly 133.3 shares;
- total profit if 86–87°F wins: approximately 93.3 USDT;
- total model EV at 47% fair probability: approximately +22.7 USDT.
Do not raise the limit above 0.30. The neighbouring 84–85°F outcome costs 0.32 and no longer provides comparable value.
New position: Seattle 82–83°F
Seattle–Tacoma’s hourly forecast peaks at 83°F, while the corresponding contract can be bought for 30¢. Polymarket resolves against the KSEA station’s whole-degree Wunderground maximum.
Purchase 15 USDT:
- 50 shares;
- payout if successful: 50 USDT;
- net profit if successful: 35 USDT;
- model EV: +7.5 USDT.
The outcome has only about $620 in reported volume, so this must be a passive limit order. Do not chase above 0.30.
San Francisco: add the lower adjacent range
The airport forecast has shifted from 72°F to a peak of 71°F. The 70–71°F contract costs 37¢, while the existing 72–73°F position now trades around 29¢. Both resolve at KSFO using whole-degree readings.
Recommended structure:
- retain the existing 20 USDT in 72–73°F rather than selling into the roughly 27¢ bid;
- add 15 USDT to 70–71°F at no more than 0.37;
- total San Francisco risk becomes 35 USDT.
Combined outcomes:
| Final maximum | Approximate portfolio result |
|---|---|
| 70–71°F | +5.5 USDT |
| 72–73°F | +31.7 USDT |
| Any other range | −35 USDT |
This position is less attractive than Chicago or Seattle, but still worth the small allocation.
Existing weather positions
Dallas 98–99°F: the market has fallen to roughly 48% midpoint, with a 49¢ YES ask. Dallas Love Field is currently around 92°F, and the remaining hourly forecast peaks at 98°F. That places the central outcome directly in the held range. Hold the remaining 125 shares; selling now would cross a wide spread at approximately 46¢.
NYC 82–83°F: the YES ask is 34¢ and the LaGuardia forecast peaks at 82°F. Fair probability remains around 44%, but volume for this outcome is only about $439. Hold the existing 25 USDT without increasing it.
Dallas July 20: 100–101°F costs 51¢ and the airport forecast peaks at 101°F. Once ordinary one-degree forecast error is included, the fair estimate is roughly equal to the price. No trade.
Macro positions
Fed +25 basis points
Polymarket prices a 25-basis-point increase at only 4.9%. Federal-funds futures were recently indicating approximately a 15.5% probability of a July increase, while the June FOMC unanimously maintained the 3.50%–3.75% range. I discount the futures signal to a 9–11% fair estimate because of instrument differences and rapidly changing inflation expectations.
The existing 40 USDT position is enough. Do not add: despite positive payoff-weighted EV, it will probably lose its entire stake. A rise to approximately 9–10¢ before the decision would justify selling at least half.
WTI touches $90
The contract costs 54¢. WTI closed July 17 at $82.49, up about 16% for the week, while renewed hostilities have reduced tanker traffic and kept disruption risks elevated. My fair estimate is approximately 58%.
Hold 75 USDT, but do not increase. The remaining edge is only around four percentage points and is correlated with the Iran position.
No new US–Iran talks by August 31
NO can be bought for approximately 57¢. The latest escalation supports a 62–64% NO estimate, but the contract’s rules allow qualifying indirect, mediator-led negotiations, so an Oman, Qatar, or Pakistan initiative remains a serious reversal risk.
Hold the current 80 USDT allocation without adding.
Updated model portfolio
Assuming the three new orders execute at their limits:
| Open position | Cost basis |
|---|---|
| Dallas July 19, 98–99°F YES | 50 |
| Chicago July 20, 86–87°F YES | 40 |
| NYC July 20, 82–83°F YES | 25 |
| San Francisco July 20, 72–73°F YES | 20 |
| San Francisco July 20, 70–71°F YES | 15 |
| Seattle July 20, 82–83°F YES | 15 |
| WTI touches $90 YES | 75 |
| No US–Iran talks by August 31 | 80 |
| Fed raises 25 bps | 40 |
| Total open cost | 360 USDT |
| Portfolio metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Starting capital | 1,000 USDT |
| Free reserve | approximately 630–633 USDT |
| Cumulative realized P/L | approximately −7 to −10 USDT |
| Liquidation value using executable bids | approximately 991–994 USDT |
| Nominal maximum loss on open positions | 360 USDT |
| Raw model expected terminal value | approximately 1,110–1,115 USDT |
| Raw expected return | approximately +11% |
| Expected value after a 60% edge haircut | approximately 1,039–1,042 USDT |
| Conservative expected return | approximately +4% |
The current liquidation value is lower than the previous midpoint-based estimate primarily because Dallas repriced downward and weather-market bid/ask spreads are wide. That does not automatically imply the underlying model edge has disappeared.
Principal risks
The largest concentration is not the 36% capital deployed, but the dependence on exact one- or two-degree weather ranges. The Fed position contributes a disproportionate amount of raw EV and could easily lose all 40 USDT. WTI and Iran NO are positively correlated: a credible diplomatic restart could damage both simultaneously. All weather transactions should therefore remain limit-only, with no market orders.
navlistDevelopments affecting the macro positionsturn618439news31,turn618439news28,turn478665news15,turn478665news19