Model-portfolio update

Market snapshot: July 20, 2026, approximately 14:25 Moscow time. Model portfolio only; no real orders have been placed.

The strongest actionable change is to add 10 USDT to “Next US–Iran peace talks by August 31 — YES.” The San Francisco weather contract still has the largest estimated edge, but its position is already at the concentration limit.

Best current opportunities

Recommended addition: US–Iran talks YES

The August 31 contract trades near 50 cents. Recent reporting indicates that intermediaries have conveyed new proposals to Tehran and that Iran has expressed conditional openness to negotiations. Both sides have also publicly left diplomatic options open despite continuing military activity.

The important qualification is that technical contacts or lower-level discussions do not resolve the market YES. A formal senior-level negotiating round must be convened, which prevents assigning an excessively high probability.

Model order:

• Add: 10 USDT
• Maximum price: 0.51
• Preferred price: 0.50
• Shares at 0.50: 20
• Maximum profit: 10 USDT
• Central fair probability: 58.5%
• Model EV: approximately +1.70 USDT
• Expected return on the addition: approximately +17%

This also provides a useful, though imperfect, hedge against the WTI position.

San Francisco ≤81°F: best raw edge, position limit reached

The contract trades around 58 cents. The airport forecast currently shows a Tuesday maximum of approximately 80°F, while the market only loses if the whole-degree KSFO maximum reaches 82°F or above. The contract resolves from the KSFO Weather Underground maximum and allows qualifying data revisions.

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My conservative fair probability is 73–78%, producing an estimated fresh-entry return of roughly 26–35%. Nevertheless:

• the existing position is already 70 USDT;
• the individual outcome has limited trading volume;
• forecast-to-station differences of only 2°F could defeat the position.

Therefore, hold but do not add. Consider selling approximately one-third if an executable bid reaches 0.75–0.79 before resolution.

WTI reaches $90: retain, but edge is now only moderate

WTI $90 YES trades near 36 cents. The contract requires an actual one-minute active-month WTI candle at or above $90; Brent reaching $90 does not count.

WTI recently reached approximately $85.39 before falling to about $81.81 following diplomatic signals from Iran. Only four vessels reportedly crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, but ample physical supply, alternative transport routes, softer demand and strategic-reserve releases are limiting the oil-price response.

My barrier scenarios produce:

• about 30% probability under a low-volatility assumption;
• approximately 38–45% under continued elevated volatility;
• central estimate: 41.5%.

The current position of 90 USDT should be held, not increased. The fair value is highly sensitive to volatility and diplomatic developments. Trim 25–30 USDT if the contract rises to 0.48–0.52 without a corresponding increase in WTI spot or futures prices.

Remaining weather positions

Chicago 86–87°F: the contract is around 0.33, while the airport forecast reaches approximately 86°F before evening storms. Fair probability is 35–39%, leaving only a modest edge. Hold the reduced 20-USDT position and do not add.

New York 80–81°F: the contract is around 0.29, while the LaGuardia forecast peaks around 79°F with showers and thunderstorms. The position is now close to fairly priced. Keep the small 10-USDT residual, but sell if an executable bid reaches 0.30 or better.

Hormuz hedge

The August 31 normalization contract trades around 15%. It requires the IMF PortWatch seven-day moving average to reach at least 60 transit calls per day, a much stricter condition than merely seeing traffic improve for several days. Current traffic remains extremely depressed.

Estimated fair probability is 16–20%. Retain only the existing 5 USDT as a hedge against rapid de-escalation; do not treat it as a primary value position.

Updated target portfolio

These figures are expected terminal values rather than a precise current liquidation NAV. Earlier transactions were hypothetical model fills, and complete executable bid and average-entry data were not recorded.

Key risks

The main concentration remains the 90-USDT WTI position. A diplomatic breakthrough or rapid volatility collapse could move its fair probability below the current market price.

Weather contracts resolve from exact airport observations. A one- or two-degree miss, station-coordinate differences, rounding or subsequent data corrections can completely change the result.

The talks position only wins on a qualifying formal senior-level round. Public statements, proposals through intermediaries or technical meetings may move the price but fail to satisfy the resolution rules.

Portfolio change now: add 10 USDT to US–Iran talks by August 31 YES at 0.51 or below. Leave all other positions unchanged.

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