Snapshot: July 20, 2026, approximately 15:50 Moscow time. Fair probabilities below are model estimates, not guarantees. No real orders have been placed.
Two portfolio changes are warranted:
- Rotate New York July 21 from 80–81°F into 82–83°F.
- Open Chicago July 21, 86–87°F YES for 15 USDT.
Best current opportunities
| Contract | Market price | Estimated fair probability | Edge | Recommended action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Jul 21: ≤81°F YES | 0.57 | 74–80% | +17–23 pp | Hold 70 USDT; position limit reached |
| New York Jul 21: 82–83°F YES | 0.13 | 24–31% | +11–18 pp | Rotate 10 USDT into this contract |
| Chicago Jul 21: 86–87°F YES | 0.27 | 36–43% | +9–16 pp | Buy 15 USDT at ≤0.29 |
| WTI reaches $90 in July — YES | 0.31 | 37–43% | +6–12 pp | Hold 90 USDT; no additional concentration |
| US–Iran talks by Aug 31 — YES | 0.55–0.56 | 60–64% | +4–9 pp | Hold 25 USDT |
| Chicago Jul 20: 86–87°F YES | 0.29–0.30 | 36–43% | +6–14 pp | Hold remaining 20 USDT |
| Hormuz traffic normalizes by Aug 31 — YES | 0.15–0.16 | 17–20% | small | Retain only as 5-USDT hedge |
Recommended trades
New York: rotate into 82–83°F
Polymarket currently prices 80–81°F around 32–33%, while 82–83°F is available near 13%. The official LaGuardia forecast now shows a Tuesday high near 83°F, with a 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms. This makes 82–83°F the more logical central range, although storm timing creates substantial uncertainty.
Model orders:
- Sell New York 80–81°F at 0.30 or better.
- Buy New York 82–83°F for 10 USDT, maximum price 0.14.
- At 0.13: approximately 76.9 shares.
- Profit if successful: approximately 66.9 USDT.
- Central model EV at 27% fair probability: approximately +10.8 USDT.
The unusually high estimated return is accompanied by high model risk, so the position remains capped at 10 USDT.
Chicago July 21: 86–87°F
Polymarket prices 86–87°F at approximately 27%, while the official O’Hare forecast shows a Tuesday high near 86°F. The market currently favors 84–85°F at about 44%.
Model order:
- Buy 15 USDT.
- Maximum price: 0.29.
- At 0.27: approximately 55.6 shares.
- Profit if successful: approximately 40.6 USDT.
- Central model EV at 40% fair probability: approximately +7.2 USDT.
Existing core positions
San Francisco ≤81°F
The contract is approximately 57%, while the official KSFO forecast shows a Tuesday maximum near 80°F. The market resolves using the whole-degree Weather Underground maximum for KSFO and may incorporate qualifying data corrections.
This remains the portfolio’s strongest quality-adjusted edge, but the 70-USDT position already equals 7% of starting capital. Hold without adding. Sell roughly one-third if an executable bid reaches 0.75–0.79 before resolution.
WTI reaches $90
The contract has fallen to approximately 31%. WTI was recently around $82.15 after reaching $85.39, while CME’s 30-day WTI implied-volatility index was approximately 69%. A first-passage model using a range of volatility assumptions gives roughly a 37–43% probability of touching $90 before the end of July.
Hold the existing 90 USDT, but do not increase it. The model is highly sensitive to volatility: Iran’s conditional openness to negotiations and the proposed temporary ceasefire could quickly lower both oil prices and implied volatility.
US–Iran talks YES
The market has risen to approximately 55–56%, narrowing the previous advantage. Recent mediation efforts and Iran’s conditional openness support a fair probability around 60–64%, but proposals or technical contacts alone may not satisfy the market’s formal resolution criteria.
Hold 25 USDT. Do not add at the current price.
Updated target portfolio
| Position | Target exposure |
|---|---|
| WTI reaches $90 in July — YES | 90 USDT |
| San Francisco Jul 21 ≤81°F — YES | 70 USDT |
| US–Iran talks by Aug 31 — YES | 25 USDT |
| Chicago Jul 20, 86–87°F — YES | 20 USDT |
| Chicago Jul 21, 86–87°F — YES | 15 USDT |
| New York Jul 21, 82–83°F — YES | 10 USDT |
| Hormuz normalizes by Aug 31 — YES | 5 USDT |
| New York 80–81°F | 0 USDT after rotation |
| Total open risk | 235 USDT |
| Portfolio metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Starting capital | 1,000 USDT |
| Previously modeled realized P/L | approximately +57 to +71 USDT |
| Free reserve after changes | approximately 822–836 USDT |
| Raw forward model EV | approximately +60 to +90 USDT |
| Forward EV after a 55% model-error haircut | approximately +27 to +41 USDT |
| Conservative expected terminal capital | approximately 1,084–1,112 USDT |
These totals remain approximate because earlier transactions were hypothetical limit-order fills rather than recorded executions.
Key risks
The main risk is weather-model error. These contracts resolve from exact airport-station observations; a one-degree miss, rounding or later source correction can completely change the winning range. Liquidity is also limited in the New York and Chicago outcomes, so market orders should not be used.
WTI remains the largest single position. A confirmed diplomatic breakthrough could reduce oil prices and volatility sharply. The talks-YES position provides some directional diversification, but it is not a complete hedge because formal negotiation criteria may not be met.
Portfolio change now: rotate the 10-USDT New York position into 82–83°F and open 15 USDT in Chicago July 21, 86–87°F. Leave all other positions unchanged.
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