Model-portfolio update

Snapshot: July 20, 2026, approximately 16:40 Moscow time. This remains a hypothetical portfolio; no real orders have been placed.

The material changes are:

• Close Chicago July 21, 86–87°F.
• Close New York July 21, 82–83°F.
• Open Warsaw July 21, exactly 19°C YES for 10 USDT.
• Keep the core San Francisco, WTI and US–Iran talks positions unchanged.

Best opportunities now

Current market prices come directly from the relevant Polymarket pages.

1. New trade: Warsaw exactly 19°C

Polymarket currently prices the Warsaw Chopin Airport outcomes at approximately:

• 18°C: 46%;
• 19°C: 27%, with a 0.27 ask;
• 17°C: 21%;
• 20°C: 3%.

The hourly forecast peaks at approximately 19°C around 18:00, after a cool, cloudy day with showers earlier. The market settles using the whole-degree maximum recorded for station EPWA on Weather Underground.

Using a forecast-error range of roughly 1.0–1.3°C, I estimate:

• fair probability: 33–38%;
• central estimate: 35.5%;
• market ask: 27%.

Model order

• Stake: 10 USDT
• Maximum price: 0.27
• Shares at 0.27: 37.04
• Net profit if correct: 27.04 USDT
• EV at 35.5% fair probability: approximately +3.15 USDT
• Expected return on stake: approximately +31%

Liquidity is limited, so use only a passive limit order. Cancel the order if the ask rises above 0.27.

2. San Francisco ≤81°F remains the strongest quality-adjusted position

The contract is offered at approximately 0.60. The hourly forecast for San Francisco International Airport reaches 80°F, while the position loses only if the reported whole-degree maximum is 82°F or higher. Polymarket settles from KSFO Weather Underground data and may accept revisions until the first observation of the following day appears.

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A one-degree forecast cushion is not enough to justify an 85–90% estimate, but a conservative fair range of 73–79% still leaves a substantial advantage.

Action: retain the existing 70 USDT position, but do not add. It already represents 7% of starting capital and is exposed to station-specific forecast error. Sell approximately one-third if an executable bid reaches 0.75–0.79 before settlement.

3. WTI $90: positive EV, but no additional concentration

The contract costs approximately 0.312 and resolves YES if any qualifying one-minute active-month WTI candle reaches $90 during July. The latest delayed front-month quote was around $82.57, after an intraday range of $80.27–$85.39.

A simple first-passage model gives approximately:

• 30% probability using 48% annualized volatility;
• 38% using roughly 58% options volatility;
• 46% using CME’s recently reported 69% CVOL reading.

CME reports WTI CVOL at 69.084, although nearby options data indicate volatility closer to 58%, so I use a conservative fair range of 36–42% rather than the most optimistic result.

The position remains attractive, but the latest ceasefire proposal reduces the probability of a geopolitical price spike. Mediators have proposed a ten-day ceasefire, while fighting and severe disruption around Hormuz continue.

Action: hold 90 USDT, with no addition. Trim 25–30 USDT if the contract reaches 0.42–0.46 without a corresponding rise in WTI.

4. US–Iran talks YES: hold, but the edge has narrowed

The market requires a new, formally convened, senior-level, in-person negotiating round. Indirect diplomacy through mediators can qualify, but technical, staff-level and preparatory contacts do not qualify by themselves.

The ten-day ceasefire proposal and renewed mediation raise the probability of a qualifying meeting, but no formal round has been announced, and the military escalation continues. I estimate fair probability at 58–63%, compared with a market price around 55%.

Action: hold the existing 25 USDT. Do not add above 0.55; another purchase becomes attractive only at approximately 0.52–0.53 or lower.

Positions to close

Chicago July 21, 86–87°F

The market assigns 27% to 86–87°F, while the current O’Hare hourly forecast peaks at 85°F before temperatures decline and thunderstorms become possible. Fair probability is now approximately 24–30%, leaving no meaningful advantage after the spread.

Sell the full 15-USDT position at a bid of 0.25 or better. Avoid crossing below 0.22 unless a later forecast reduces the expected maximum further.

New York July 21, 82–83°F

The market prices 82–83°F at 12%, with a 0.13 ask. The LaGuardia forecast peaks at approximately 79°F, with showers and thunderstorms likely to limit afternoon heating. Fair probability is only about 8–12%.

Close the 10-USDT position at 0.10 or better. Do not rotate into 78–79°F at the current 0.37 ask; that outcome is close to fair value after accounting for the spread.

Updated target portfolio

Portfolio expectations

The portfolio totals remain approximate because earlier entries and exits were hypothetical limit-order fills, rather than a complete ledger of actual executions.

Principal risks

The largest single exposure is WTI. Its estimated probability is extremely sensitive to implied volatility, oil’s current level and diplomatic headlines. A ceasefire can lower both spot prices and volatility before the Polymarket contract fully reprices.

The weather positions settle using exact airport stations rather than a general city forecast. A one-degree miss, station-specific microclimate, rounding convention or later Weather Underground revision can change the outcome completely.

Warsaw offers the best new percentage return, but it is a narrow exact-degree market with modest liquidity. The stake should remain capped at 10 USDT.

Recommended portfolio change now: close Chicago July 21 and New York 82–83°F, then allocate 10 USDT to Warsaw 19°C at no more than 0.27. Keep all other target positions unchanged.

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