Snapshot: July 20, 2026, approximately 17:33 Moscow time. No real orders were placed. Prices below are displayed market probabilities; executable bids and asks may differ.
forecastturn838539forecast0
Recommended changes
The main opportunity is a rotation from Warsaw 19°C into US–Iran talks by August 31 YES. San Francisco and WTI still show positive expected value, but both positions are already large enough.
| Contract | Market probability | Estimated fair probability | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Jul 21: ≤81°F YES | 0.60 | 72–78% | Hold 70 USDT |
| US–Iran formal talks by Aug 31: YES | 0.49 | 56–61% | Add 10 USDT at ≤0.50 |
| WTI reaches $90 in July: YES | 0.30 | 35–42% | Hold 90 USDT |
| Chicago Jul 20: 86–87°F YES | exact bid not verified | 34–39% | Hold residual 20 USDT |
| Warsaw Jul 21: exactly 19°C YES | previous target 0.27 | 23–29% | Cancel/exit and rotate |
| Hormuz traffic normalizes by Aug 31 | bid not reverified | no independent edge | Retain 5-USDT hedge |
Best new trade: US–Iran talks YES
Polymarket currently displays approximately 49% for a formal round by August 31. Mediators have proposed a ten-day ceasefire intended to revive negotiations, while active military operations and attacks on shipping continue.
The contract has a restrictive definition: it requires a formal, senior-level, in-person process. Indirect talks through mediators qualify, but technical discussions, remote contacts and phone calls do not.
Model order
- Sell or cancel the 10-USDT Warsaw position.
- Buy 10 USDT of talks YES.
- Preferred limit: 0.49.
- Maximum price: 0.50.
- At 0.49: approximately 20.41 shares.
- Net profit if YES: approximately 10.41 USDT.
- Central fair probability: 58.5%.
- Estimated EV: approximately +1.94 USDT, or +19% on the new allocation.
The total talks position becomes 35 USDT.
San Francisco ≤81°F: hold, do not increase
Polymarket shows 60% for 81°F or below. The latest hourly airport forecast peaks near 80°F, giving the position a narrow but meaningful cushion below the losing threshold of 82°F.
Fair probability remains approximately 72–78%, but the existing 70-USDT position already represents 7% of starting capital.
Action: hold. Do not add. Offer roughly one-third for sale if an executable bid reaches 0.74–0.78 before settlement.
WTI $90: positive EV, but concentration limit reached
Polymarket currently prices the July $90 touch near 30%. WTI is trading around $82, after an intraday range that reached roughly $85.39 before oil reversed on ceasefire reports.
A barrier model using moderate-to-elevated annualized volatility gives approximately 35–42% for at least one touch of $90 before July ends. Continued disruption to shipping supports the upper end, while plentiful physical supply and active diplomacy support the lower end.
Action: hold the existing 90 USDT, but do not add. Reduce 25–30 USDT if the contract rises to 0.41–0.45 without WTI itself moving materially higher.
Warsaw 19°C: previous edge has disappeared
The latest Warsaw Chopin Airport forecast now peaks near 18°C, rather than 19°C. That lowers the estimated probability of an exact 19°C maximum to approximately 23–29%, close to the previous 0.27 entry limit.
Action:
- cancel the order if it was not filled;
- if filled, sell at 0.25 or better;
- do not cross a very wide spread merely to recover a few cents;
- do not switch to 18°C until its current executable price is confirmed.
Chicago residual
The latest O’Hare forecast still reaches approximately 86°F, although late thunderstorms could cap the maximum. Polymarket now makes 84–85°F the dominant range at about 52%, indicating that the market has moved against the existing 86–87°F position.
The residual 20-USDT position remains acceptable, but no new capital should be added without confirming the exact 86–87°F bid and ask.
Updated target portfolio
| Position | Target exposure |
|---|---|
| WTI reaches $90 in July — YES | 90 USDT |
| San Francisco Jul 21 ≤81°F — YES | 70 USDT |
| US–Iran formal talks by Aug 31 — YES | 35 USDT |
| Chicago Jul 20, 86–87°F — YES | 20 USDT |
| Hormuz traffic normalizes — YES hedge | 5 USDT |
| Warsaw Jul 21, 19°C | 0 USDT after exit |
| Total open risk | 220 USDT |
| Portfolio metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Starting capital | 1,000 USDT |
| Previously modeled realized P/L | approximately +57 to +71 USDT |
| Free reserve after rotation | approximately 837–851 USDT |
| Raw forward model EV | approximately +50 to +60 USDT |
| EV after a 55% model-error haircut | approximately +23 to +27 USDT |
| Conservative expected terminal capital | approximately 1,080–1,098 USDT |
The largest risks remain a sudden diplomatic reversal affecting WTI, station-specific weather errors of one or two degrees, and slippage in thin order books.
Portfolio change now: remove Warsaw 19°C and rotate the same 10 USDT into US–Iran talks by August 31 YES at 0.50 or below. Keep all other target exposures unchanged.
navlistLatest oil and US–Iran developmentsturn479195news42,turn479195news44,turn479195news43